- 5G is the first mobile radio standard capable of meeting different requirements, depending on the application, ranging from maximum bandwidth for 8K video transmissions to many connections in the tightest space for IoT.
- The first 5G applications will soon be found behind factory walls, where Industry 4.0 use cases will be supported within local campus networks.
- For the much-discussed, comprehensive 5G support of autonomous driving, by contrast, many parameters within the context of licensure still require clarification.
What Lies Ahead with 5G
The next mobile communication standard 5G is drawing near. In May this year, Deutsche Telekom opened Europe's first 5G test field in Berlin. Across the board, mobile phone providers have been implementing the specifications of 3GPP Release 15 (5G’s endmost precursor) into their networks, and production of the chipsets required for the 5G devices has already started at Qualcomm, Intel, and others.
Assuming licensure in early 2019, we expect a market launch in Germany at the beginning of 2020, i.e., in less than 18 months. This article gives an introductory synopsis of where we see potential for new 5G-based applications in the years ahead.
What 5G makes possible seems confusing at first glance. There is of course more bandwidth (in laboratory situations download rates > 70 Gbit/s were achieved,
whereas the target for real situations is 1 - 10 Gbit/s). But also under discussion is 5G as the mobile communications standard for the Internet of Things, where we are talking about a large number of connections in a small space, each of which, however, requires only very little bandwidth.
And finally, 5G is also the standard that will make autonomous driving possible - and this is more of a question of high reliability and low latency.
How does all this fit together?
Indeed, 5G heralds the end of the “one-size-fits-all” mobile network. Through software-defined networking (SDN), network services can be variably produced and
managed. For example, network slices can be defined for extremely high availability and reliability requirements and/or - in conjunction with edge servers - for very low
latency times that also meet the highest quality of service requirements. Moreover, there will be slices for massive Machine-Type Communication (mMTC), i.e., for
connecting many sensors and actuators in a small space, whereby each one needs a minimum of transmitting power to conserve the battery. Likewise, there will be slices for the well-known factor of best-effort connectivity.
For network operators, 5G also represents the potential to meet increasing capacity requirements down the road at a significantly lower cost - production costs per GB are expected to be approximately ten times lower.
Additional network-based services (e.g., hosting at edge servers or positioning services through the network) and specially configured network services (such as quality of service levels) can be priced individually as well. Below, we shall describe where we see the greatest potential for 5G-related applications beyond the realm of tariff plan commercial activity.
As already practiced with preceding standards, 5G will also be rolled out in stages, starting in major cities. Further expansion in rural regions (up to a population coverage of 98 %) and along national roads and motorways will be required by the German regulator, but it is still unclear how this expansion will be financed. Campus area networks play a special role.
This involves the provision of industrial- grade connectivity in clearly defined areas, such as an industrial site, a clinic, or a goods turnover point (freight stations, harbors, airports). The need for networking, economic value, and technical implementation possibilities are all significantly high in these areas, which is why we will experience 5G here even earlier than in large cities.
Product precursors are also already available. For example, Deutsche Telekom offers a dual-slice solution as a precursor to 5G which provides a campus-internal industrial network slice through a private LTE network with its own on-premise core,
and combines this with an infrastructure installed on campus to strengthen the public LTE network.
Although campus area networks still hardly play a role in the general discussion of 5G, they represent the “first horizon” of 5G development. This provides reason enough to dedicate the focus of this article to them.
Horizon 1: 5G on the Industrial Campus
The first 5G-based campus networks will emerge in an industrial context. We estimate that about 1,200 industrial locations in Germany are suitable for campus networks. Additionally, there are approximately 500 logistics hubs and, in the future, circa 300 major hospitals. This market is not only addressed by mobile network operators.
Added to this are the network equipment suppliers Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson with their private LTE solutions. Moreover, system manufacturers and integrators, such as Bosch and Siemens, and networking specialists, such as Blackned, are also attempting to enter this market. The extent to which the solutions of non-mobile operators can also use licensed spectrum for this in the future is currently being discussed prior to licensure. According to the latest statements, the German regulator (BNetzA) will enable the setup of independent, local radio networks on request in a frequency range reserved for this purpose.
Compared to wired field buses and Ethernet-based industrial communication systems, a 5G-based campus network offers the following key advantages:
- The capability of integrating objects and information beyond the production site as well as from suppliers and service providers
- A potentially uniform connectivity standard for end-to-end controlling entire production lines and cross-linking all service providers (which bypass local gateways)
- Shorter set-up times and greater flexibility when converting modular production systems
- The integration of “moving objects” such as automated guided vehicles (AGVs), mobile control units, and mobile robots.
In comparison with available radio standards (Wi-Fi, DECT ULE, Bluetooth, 6LoWPAN, and the soon-to-be WirelessHART), a 5G network features the following crucial advantages:
- Highest reliability and security features using licensed spectrum with quality of service management
- Low latency, especially in combination with a mobile edge cloud (on- or off-premise)
- Interoperability with the public network (e.g., for breakouts for cross-location communication)
- Compliance with the highest security requirements by handling safety-critical traffic in a separated network slice.
However, the value of 5G campus networks in the industry 4.0 context is truly revealed in the give-and-take with the following application families:
- Integrated production control tools for end-to-end production monitoring and controlling
- Predictive maintenance tools for machines
- As a service accounting tools for service providers and machine manufacturers, i.e., the procurement of machine performance instead of machines in production
- Control system software for automated intra-logistics and warehouses
- Autonomous AGVs (automated guided vehicles) and Mobile Robots
- AR maintenance tools, i.e., the support of employees in production and maintenance using augmented reality.
In all these fields, start-ups, machine and plant manufacturers, logistics companies, and industrial service providers are already on the market with initial solutions, but given the sector’s importance and high efficiency potential of the application systems addressed, sizeable growth potential still remains to be found here.
Horizon 2: 5G in the City
It is possible to speak of a 5G mass market when 5G has reached the major cities.
For network operators, 5G is an efficient way to create supplementary network capacity in metropolitan areas. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how the additional associated expenditure can be earned back in a fully developed market with a limited price margin. Certainly, new 5G-based applications and business models will emerge. Although we will mainly use 4K and VR games and videos at home (via WiFi), another significant increase in mobile video consumption is expected in the years ahead.
Moreover, in schools or universities, WiFi networks will hardly suffice to connect a class set of VR glasses - 5G is more likely to be used here. We also see potential in AR applications (AR games, AR education, AR information). In this case, bandwidth is less decisive than the lower latency made possible by 5G, so that virtual overlay and real image always remain synchronous during motion. In the long run, this is a prerequisite for a vertigo-free user experience.
In addition to consumer applications, 5G will also promote the realization of classic smart city themes. This is particularly true when we regard the recently launched Narrowband IoT (NB-loT) as the first 5G network slice. Key application groups here are smart parking, waste management, and smart lighting.
5G is also considered to be a potential connectivity standard for controlling the smart grid. On the one hand, this due to its low latency (which is important for load control in the power grid) and on the other hand, to the very high reliability and security that can be gained with a network slice especially designed for power control. We see the potential of 5G primarily at grid levels 5-7 (medium to low voltage), and in particular, for integrated utilities (mostly municipal utilities).
What these application groups have in common is that the sales potential here does not reside in its connectivity, but instead in the development and operation of corresponding services.
Horizon 3: 5G in Land Areas
5G is often regarded as the standard that will make autonomous driving possible. Indeed, 5G networks have already been installed on several test tracks worldwide, providing test facilities for car manufacturers (including K-City in Korea, Astazero in Sweden, and soon Aldenhoven and Lausitzring in Germany). The theme of the 5G Automotive Alliance (5GAA) asks what role 5G should specifically play in autonomous driving, and how integration with other input sources of the car (such as LIDAR or direct vehicle-to-vehicle communication) will specifically play out. However, we are still a long way from standardization.
Still also unresolved for the most part 5 are issues such as international roaming and responsibility for central traffic control.
The same applies to the previous question of funding the expansion of the 5G network along transport routes. Specific means of autonomous transport will therefore be off the ground much earlier than others. AGVs for container transport are already a reality in the Port of Hamburg (and on many other company sites), and soon we will see autonomous trams in cities. Yet due to the lack of a legal framework, it will still take many years before drones fly autonomously over land. Application developers need patience and creativity to find the right market access in a more experimental environment.
Summary
5G is on its way. Not as a revolution, but gradually, and at first where it won’t be seen (behind factory and harbor walls). What might become the most popular application (the support of autonomous driving in land areas) will only come at the end. But even before that, 5G will enable a wide range of new applications wherever it becomes available. Value creation and sales potential will almost always reside in its application, not in its connectivity. Application developers who want to participate in these potentials would do well to coordinate their development roadmap with the 5G rollout plans of network operators.
Your Contact Person
Dr. Thilo Löwe
Managing Director
E-Mail: thilo.loewe@lsp.de